Tricida, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCDA) liquidated in June 2023 after its drug veverimer experienced a wild ride in the previous three years. The company designed veverimer to prevent the onset of metabolic acidosis, which can lead to chronic kidney disease. Physicians largely treated acidosis with sodium bicarbonate or antacids. Tricida expected veverimer would be more reliable than standard of care acidosis therapy, perhaps ultimately thwarting end-stage renal disease. The drug performed very well in a phase III trial but was rejected by the FDA in August 2020 even though the agency had designated veverimer for accelerated approval. Tricida’s stock quickly slid 61% from its April 2020 price when SanaCurrents forecast a positive FDA decision for veverimer.
In early 2021, he agency’s cardio-renal advisory committee reversed its previous guidance regarding a surrogate endpoint to approve veverimer. The FDA further advised future veverimer data would need to demonstrate the applicability of the trial’s results to the US patient population, which again was not required by the previous protocol. Tricida regrouped, testing veverimer as requested, and said it would report new phase III data by the third quarter of 2022. With its stock price depressed, SanaCurrents issued a speculative forecast for positive phase III data in November 2021. Tricida’s stock had climbed 59% by October 11, 2022. Because the phase III trial was a speculative catalyst, SanaCurrents closed its coverage and position on October 11 after the 59% run up. On October 24, Tricida reported the phase III trial did not meet the primary endpoint, sending the company’s shares into a freefall spiral prior to liquidation.