SanaCurrents Performance

SanaCurrents was founded after developing a set of objective data points related to clinical testing, regulatory decisions, and business development in biotechnology. The data points establish the probability a biotech catalyst, such as a clinical trial result, will be positive, and serve as the foundation for our featured catalyst reports. In our experience, a positive catalyst result typically increases the company’s share price.

The results posted on the home page represent the cumulative increase in the value of a $1 purchase in each SanaCurrents catalyst forecast that has been realized and reinvested. The performance figures cited include all positive and negative catalyst outcomes of 90 realized catalysts through December 31, 2020. As a specific example, a negative 50% result is included in all performance calculations as well as a 220% positive gain, each percent representing the performance of a particular stock, post catalyst.

The methodology assumes $1 is invested in a SanaCurrents catalyst at the time of the report. As a catalyst is realized, positive or negative, the capital is reinvested evenly across all remaining SanaCurrents catalysts. For example, if a realized catalyst had $1,000 in total capital remaining and 10 catalysts were pending, the model assumes one would re-invest another $100 into each of the companies with pending catalysts. In the model, the re-investment enhances cumulative gains and compensates for missed catalysts, leading to the strong overall gains.

Balancing reinvestment as described above can be accomplished easily by a spreadsheet but is not an easy exercise in practice. Constantly re-balancing positions to maintain the right number of shares (for equitable distribution of capital in pending catalysts) can be tricky, especially if capital allocation is an issue. As a result, it is not a surprise many SanaCurrents subscribers prefer to pick and choose the catalysts that interest them and invest at different points in the cycle.

For example, when SanaCurrents issued a report on BioXcel Therapeutics’ (NASDAQ:BTAI) drug BXCL501 in December 2019, the company’s stock traded at $8.31 per share. The catalysts for BXCL501, results of two separate phase III trials in agitation and schizophrenia, were expected in mid-2020.

In February 2020, BioXcel disclosed it planned to test the drug as a treatment for opioid withdrawal symptoms. The addition of the opioid withdrawal indication prompted an analyst to issue a price target of approximately $130 per share for BioXcel. The market accepted the target, triggering a rise of BioXcel shares to the $40 per share range.

Trading BioXcel at $40 per share would have yielded a near 400% return, if a subscriber had purchased the stock two months earlier. For many subscribers, a terrific result. However, when the statistically significant results in each trial were announced on July 20, 2020, BioXcel closed at $60.42 per share, reflecting a 627% gain.

Many options are available, at your discretion, to make use of SanaCurrents catalyst forecasts. Subscribers should exercise their preferred, individual discipline when timing trades, buy or sell, regarding the catalyst forecast.

The pie chart on the left below shows 60% of SanaCurrents’ catalyst forecasts resulted in an increase in the company’s stock price at the time of the catalyst. The second pie chart, on the right below, illustrates the company’s stock price increased at least 25% at some point after the report was issued in 72% (65 total) of the 90 closed catalysts through December 31, 2020.